It may still seem to be the plot from a major blockbuster, but the threat of cyber warfare is now reality warns McAfee in its fifth annual Virtual Criminology Report.

The report has revealed that five countries – the United States, Russia, France, Israel and China – are now armed with cyber weapons. The report also highlights the fact that politically motivated cyber attacks have increased.

Dave DeWalt, McAfee president and CEO, said:
“McAfee began to warn of the global cyber arms race more than two years ago, but now we’re seeing increasing evidence that it’s become real. Now several nations around the world are actively engaged in cyber war-like preparations and attacks. Today, the weapons are not nuclear, but virtual, and everyone must adapt to these threats.”

The McAfee Criminology Report includes insights from over 24 of the world’s leading experts in international relations. This includes Dr Jamie Saunders, counsellor at the British Embassy in Washington D.C. and security experts with experience at the U.S. National Security Agency and the Australian Attorney-General’s Department. Paul Kurtz, former White House advisor, wrote the report on McAfee’s behalf.

For the first time, the McAfee report provides a model to define cyber war. Furthermore, it identifies the countries involved in developing cyber offenses and cyber defences and dissects examples of politically-motivated cyber attacks.

The McAfee report also reveals how the private sector will get caught in the crossfire and worries that due to strict Government disclosure rules,
cyber initiatives and information are often classified, hindering cybercrime defence in the public and private sector.

In a nutshell, the McAfee report identifies a number of key issues and challenges.

William Crowell, a former Deputy Director of the U.S. National Security Agency, says in the Virtual Criminology Report.
“Over the next 20 to 30 years, cyber attacks will increasingly become a component of war. What I can’t foresee is whether networks will be so pervasive and unprotected that cyber war operations will stand alone.”

This year’s report identifies the following issues and challenges.

First and foremost is the fact that cyber warfare is now a reality. McAfee reckons that over the last 12 months, the increase in politically motivated cyber attacks has raised alarm. Targets have included the White House, Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Secret Service and Department of Defence in the U.S. What’s more, a number of countries are actively developing cyber warfare capabilities and are actively involved in the cyber arms race, targeting government networks and critical infrastructures.

Perhaps most worrying, is that cyber weapons are targeting critical infrastructure. In other words, attackers are not only building their cyber defences, but cyber offenses, which means targeting infrastructure such as power grids, transportation, telecommunication, finance and water supplies. The attraction here is that damage can be caused quickly and with little effort.

McAfee makes the point that cyber warfare is undefined. It entangles so many different actors in so many different ways, that the rules of engagement are not clearly defined. Furthermore, there is much debate on how much responsibility should be placed on organizations to protect and educate the public on preventing cyber attacks. It comes down to the fact that without a proper definition in place, it is nearly impossible to determine when a political response, or threat of military action, is warranted.

And the private sector is the most vulnerable sector. McAfee points out that in many developed countries, critical infrastructure is privately owned, making it a huge target for cyber warfare. The argument is that the private sector relies heavily on the government for protection. Should a cyber war start, governments, corporations and private citizens may get caught in the crossfire. And without insight into a government’s cyber defence strategy, the private sector is not able to be proactive and take the proper precautions.

In all, being targeted by a determined cyber attack on a large scale can reek huge damage.

Guest Article by Neil Camp